Donald Trump is the president-elect for the United States, and we’re still just now starting to understand how he won.
The narratives are already flying, but it’s important to look at the numbers. Based on exit poll data and some early analysis of early turnout, one thing becomes clear: Hillary Clinton underperformed among numerous important populations compared to Barack Obama’s win over Mitt Romney.
Oh, and a bunch of people might have voted for Harambe.
Nearly half of eligible voters (231,556,622 people) did not vote in the 2016 presidential election, according to data of early turnout rates compiled by the United States Election Project and crunched by Josh Nelson. The full results may not be available until two weeks.
The early data found that of the U.S. population:
46.6% didn’t vote
25.6% voted for Hillary Clinton
25.5% voted for Donald Trump
1.7% voted for Gary Johnson
It wasn’t the lowest turnout in history, however. About 49 percent of eligible voters did not participate in the 1996 election, in which Democratic candidate Bill Clinton beat Republican candidate Bob Dole.
For the swing states, tallied by Jason Andrews:
36.5% didn’t vote
29.9% voted for Clinton
30.9% voted for Trump
1.9% voted Johnson
As for how that compares historically, Republicans were down slightly. Democrats, however, failed to show up.
As to the lack of participation in voting, it may not have been out of laziness or disdain. Tuesday was the first election since the 2013 Supreme Court ruling against the Voting Rights Act. The changes added new voter identification requirements.
For example, in some states, voters must present a photo ID. Hundreds of polling sites and locations were closed or changed.
2012 Obama: 65.9m
2016 Clinton: 59.1m = -6.8m
2012 Romney: 60.9m
2016 Trump: 59m = -1.9m
You tell me what happened
Domenico Montanaro (@DomenicoNPR) November 9, 2016
The popular vote
The latest poll numbers also indicate that Clinton may have just barely squeezed out a win in the popular vote. An estimated 25.6 percent of eligible voters named Clinton while 25.5 percent voted for Trump.
When you narrow the numbers down to those who did vote, Clinton had 48 percent (59,580,545 votes) compared to 47 percent (59,341,558 votes) for Trump, according to the Associated Press.
Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein didnt earn too many votes overall (and neither earned any electoral votes), but in key battleground states, such as Florida, their combined third-party votes started to add up.
Throughout the country, in the popular vote together they took 4 percent of voters more than 4 million votes for Johnson and just more than 1.2 million for Stein.
In Florida, Johnson captured 2 percent of the vote, or 206,007 votes. Combined with Stein that was roughly 270,00 third-party votes in a state where Trump won by only about 120,000 votes.
Third-party candidates may have made the difference tonight. In Florida alone, they won a combined 300K votes. #2016
Dafna Linzer (@DafnaLinzer) November 9, 2016
New Hampshire, which after a tight back-and-forth ended up going to Clinton with a difference of about 1,400 votes, also saw strong support for the Libertarian Party with 30,000 votes.
New Mexico, where Johnson was a longtime governor, was the state that gave the most support for the Libertarian candidate. Johnson earned 9 percent of the vote in the state that went to Clinton.
Utah bucked all trends and came out strong for independent candidate Evan McMullin. The three-way race made the consistently Republican state less of a sure thing. McMullin brought in 20 percent of the vote, which was very close to Clintons 28 percent, though in the end Trump won Utah.
Race and Gender
For all the talk about minorities pushing Clinton to victory, it was white people that put Trump over the top.
The graph below shows the stark split between who supported Trump and who supported Clinton. It is notable that Clinton did not win the latino vote by as much as some had expected. Clinton also underperformed in most of these groups compared to Obama.
The data below from CNN based on exit polls:
Comparing Trump’s performance with minority voters against the GOP candidate in 2012, Mitt Romney, we see that Trump outperformed him, despite Trump’s speeches and commentary considered offensive toward both the Latino and black communities.
Trump did better than Romney among blacks by 5 points. He did 2 points better among Latinos.
Byron Tau (@ByronTau) November 9, 2016
Clinton won the youth vote, but again, not by as much as Barack Obama did versus Mitt Romney.
Trump didn’t fare particularly better, with numbers so far comparable to Romney or John McCain.
Still, Clinton’s weakness in a group that leaned heavily toward her underscores what appears to be a wider turnout problem that may have cost her the election.
Sarah Huckabee, a senior adviser to Trump, said that he had overwhelming evangelical support.
There had been some concern that Trump’s personal life, in particular allegations of sexual assault and marital infidelity, could hurt him with this group.
Sasha Lekach contributed reporting.